Sunday, January 22, 2006

HIT LIST

Obviously I would be delighted just to see a Conservative victory tomorrow, but after the last several months of nonsense in Parliament and the general misconduct of the government, I'm really out for blood this time.

Which in itself tells you all you need to know about how confident I'm feeling about things. Last election I was worrying about Conservatives who I wanted to see elected who were going down to defeat. I'm still concerned that some good Toronto Tories will end up losing on election night. But what I'm really interested in is seeing these Liberals punished severely.

The people I really want to see defeated are these turncoats, particularly Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach. I know quite a few Tories say they'd love to see these two squirm on the opposition benches. Not me. I want to see that hatchet man Brison defeated. I hated him in government and I'd also hate him in opposition. So I want to see him gone. Good riddance to him.

And everyone in the Tory party wants Belinda kicked out because of her defection to the Liberals from the Conservatives. The problem in Newmarket-Aurora is that "Elvis" is running against her for the "PC Party", and lots of Tories are worried that people will confuse the PC Party (the Progressive Canadian Party) with the Conservative Party (which the old PC Party of Canada merged into). In a close race it could cost real Conservative Lois Brown a ton of votes. Anyway, I hope Brown wins and gives Belinda a richly-deserved boot.

Several others on my hit list:

Ujjal Dosangh: Another traitor, this one from the NDP. Was involved in discussions in luring Gurmant Grewal over to the Liberals. Get rid of him, too.
Jean Lapierre: Can't decide whether he's a separatist or a federalist. Would love to see him lose.
Ralph Goodale. Ralph, you're a good guy, but you should have stepped aside as Finance Minister while the RCMP investigated that income trust thing. Nice knowing you.
Liza Frulla. Have all sorts of issues with her handling of the CRTC. Barely won last time.
Sarmite Bulte. Slave to the Copyright Nazis and entertainment industry lobbyists. Deserves the boot for that reason alone.
Michael Ignatieff. Okay, he's not an incumbent Liberal, but his undemocratic parachute nomination into Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a disgrace to Canadian politics.
Anne McLellan: fed up with seeing Paul Martin parade her around as some sort of "representative" for western Canada. She doesn't stand for anything most western Canadians believe in. Her boot would be richly deserved.
And last but not least, The Prime Minister Himself, Paul Martin. Seeing him go down in flames in LaSalle-Emard would make my night. He's been a lousy prime minister and he's run a terrible campaign, and has treated good Liberals like Sheila Copps completely shabbily. The team around him is absolutely the worst group of negative partisan hacks I've ever seen in Canadian politics. It's too bad Liberals Scott Reid and John Duffy aren't running for office; if they were, they'd be on the Hit List, too. But they aren't, so instead I'm putting the Prime Minister on this list, so that both Reid and Duffy will be cleaning out their desks Tuesday morning. While this is a long shot, I really do hope Lasalle-Emard gets rid of Martin.

Ironically a lot of these people are facing their toughest challenges from not the Tories, but the NDP and the Bloc. I may be in the unusual position of cheering NDP and Bloc victories tomorrow night over unpopular Liberals. As they say, politics makes strange bedfellows.

The Liberals not only deserve a defeat tomorrow, they deserve a slaughter at the polls. I am thoroughly fed up with their corrupt machine politics, their entitlements, and their general lack of respect for the Canadian voter. I want them all to deal with the same problems in the private sector that the rest of us rabble face on a regular basis. They aren't entitled to their entitlements, these Liberals. GET RID OF THESE PEOPLE.

PREDICTIONS

I will not give a seat total prediction because I really think a number of races are too close to call. I will say that I detect out there a distinctive desire by people to get rid of the Liberals. I talked to many undecideds who blurted out that they hadn't made their decision but they are definitely not voting Liberal. I suspect many minds are made up.

I see it being an incumbents election out West with a few modest NDP gains at Liberal expense in British Columbia. I see Atlantic Canada gains for the Conservatives. Quebec will be a slaughter: I think the Liberals are going to be lucky to win ten seats. My guess is they may come in as low as five, that's how mad people in Quebec are at them. And I think the Tories may come in as high as the Liberals.

As for Ontario, I see similar results there for the Conservatives to what Brian Mulroney achieved in 1988, with eastern, central and southwestern Ontario making up the bedrock of the Tory caucus. Toronto, I see staying Liberal, but John Capobianco has a real shot at Etobicoke-Lakeshore and even Peter Kent has a shot in St. Paul's. Let me tell you, six months ago I would have told you that St. Paul's had as much a chance of endorsing a Conservative as the Globe and Mail. And the NDP is running a strong campaign there. Peter Kent might just pull one out. The Tories also have hopes for John Carmichael in Don Valley West; Stephen Harper was in the riding yesterday. If they win there they're going to win in a lot of places in Toronto.

As for my former home province of Saskatchewan, I really see things being similar to last time with Tories sweeping the province. Regina is the only place likely to hold out and vote Liberal or NDP. The race in Wascana with Ralph Goodale is likely to be close, while the NDP are the main threat in the other Regina ridings. The NDP are saddled with the baggage of a deeply unpopular provincial government, though, and that is always a big factor because provincial politics is a bigger deal there.

The Liberals thought they had a shot in Wanuskewin with Chris Axworthy but that embarrassing call-in show incident has blown their shot at that riding, and the riding will likely stay Conservative. The problem for the Liberals and NDP is that the urban ridings are all split urban-rural seats. The rural portions hand the victories to the Conservatives every election while the urban portions split between the NDP and Liberals. The Liberals made the ridings in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert split rural-urban because they figured they had a better shot than if the ridings were entirely urban; Liberals in Saskatchewan traditionally did better under such a setup because of the strength of the NDP in the cities. But now these setups hand these seats to the Conservatives every election because of the rural vote. Anyway, 13-to-1 Conservative would be my guess. Saskatchewan is pretty unpredictable, though.

That's all for now.

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