Friday, April 15, 2005

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER POLL

Well, it's more bad news for the Liberals. CTV just came out with yet another Ipsos-Reid poll that this time has the Conservatives at 36% and the Liberals at 27%.

Every poll this week has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives and the Tories could win anywhere between 120 and 145 seats, based on these numbers. This poll also has the NDP slipping to 15%, which actually sounds about right.

I take the polls semi-seriously. They're a snapshot, that's all they are. And you have to factor in things like organizational strength and so on. The polls always underestimate Conservative strength in BC and Liberal strength in Quebec, that's something I always find.

They also usually overstate Liberal strength out West, usually, so if the poll numbers we are getting are accurate the Liberals are due to be completely slaughtered in Western Canada, with everybody losing their seats. Because these poll numbers from the West look absolutely hideous for them.

Stephen Harper was noted as being in Ontario and in "campaign mode." The polls keep on saying the people of Canada don't want an election, but frankly I think the issue now is whether the government should change, given the scandals surrounding the Liberal Party. If that's the real issue then I think the people ought to be consulted in an election. The last thing we need to see happen in the House of Commons is for the Liberal government to be defeated, and then for the government to be simply handed over by the Governor-General to the Conservatives without an election. That reeks of backroom shenanigans and besides, what the Tories really would need is a mandate. Technically they would be able to take power with a deal with the Bloc Quebecois. But that would be a deal with the devil. No way Stephen Harper would want that. He'd have no mandate to govern at all.

In potential campaign news I was watching TVO tonight and they were mentioning a few Queen's Park names looking to run federally. John Baird's name keeps popping up in Ottawa West-Nepean, but they also mentioned that John Capobianco is looking to run again and that Tony Clement is thinking of running in Muskoka, of all places. I'm actually not surprised that Capobianco may be thinking of running, he told me last fall he was going to try again. I am a little surprised that Clement might be going for a Muskoka seat, though. I thought he might run in Brampton again.

No comments: